With financial market turbulence seeming to ease in recent weeks, investors are no longer consumed by looming catastrophe. Instead, their focus has shifted towards monitoring economic growth and inflation across the world’s largest economies. A multitude of factors influence these two factors, leaving investors with a wide range of possibilities to ponder.
Employment and wages can provide valuable insight into economic growth and inflationary pressures. As additional people enter the workforce, more disposable income becomes available which can help boost the economy in the short-term. Meanwhile, wage growth that outpaces the rate of inflation can indicate an increase in domestically generated profits, increased business investment, and an increase in the level of marketplace competition.
Inflationary pressures are typically influenced by the supply and demand. If demand outstrips supply, businesses may be encouraged to raise prices in order to cover their costs. Under such circumstances, inflation could begin to climb. On the other hand, if inflation begins to spiral out of control then there could be a risk to further economic gains. Inflation restraint can give way to ensuring long-term prosperity for the economy.
It is also important to consider the impact of the currency exchange rate on inflation. When the exchange rate appreciates or the US dollar strengthens against the other currencies, US exports become less competitive, while imports become cheaper. This in turn can lead to an increase in the money supply and an eventual increase in inflation. It is also important to consider how changes in the currency exchange rate can impact domestic prices of products and services.
The Fed’s monetary policy can also be a significant factor when it comes to inflationary analysis. By controlling the money supply, the Fed can place constraints on economic growth and inflation. This is often done by controlling interest rates, adjusting the money supply, and establishing reserve requirements.
It is clear that there are numerous components to monitoring the inflation and growth outlook of the world’s largest economies. Careful analysis of the indicators above can help investors make informed decisions based on the macro-economic environment. Above all, it is essential to remain alert and ready to adjust to changes in the marketplace should the need arise.